Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Labour meltdown

In my last post I put an optimistic spin on what Labour might be able to do in response to Brexit, and I still wasn't desperately positive. But there's a compelling case that it could be much, much worse.

I started my Labour analysis by assuming that the coup to remove Corbyn would be successful. That in itself throws up all sorts of problems, but it's indescribably worse if the coup is unsuccessful. Here's a version of what might happen next:

The motion of no confidence (or whatever the technical term is for the vote today) is passed easily. Corbyn refuses to resign. The PLP get 50 or more MP/MEPs to nominate a single challenger (presumably Watson or Eagle) and Corbyn announces that he will contest the election, and that NEC rules mean he is automatically on the ballot.

The PLP don't agree with that, but the NEC (which is marginally pro-Corbynish) uphold Corbyn's view in the face of massive protests by the membership. Corbyn wins the vote by a reduced margin and is returned as leader.

What the actual fuck do Labour do next? Answers on a postcard please.

3 Comments:

Blogger Recusant said...

Split.

It's coming in any case, so they may as well bite the bullet.

To be frank, the whole of British politics is in a state of flux at the moment and none of the major parties - bar, possibly UKIP - do even a passable imitation of reflecting their base. We need a new set of parties. I vote for Whigs and Tories. Although I'm not sure there are any Tories about, bar Jacob R-M.

12:25 pm  
Blogger Tim J said...

Ooh, but a split will be so hard just before an election.

3:52 pm  
Blogger Recusant said...

True, but it will just be making de jure what everybody can see is de facto.

4:20 pm  

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